Geomagnetic Storm November 4 2021 – Arrived

Analysis of the previous day’s coronal mass ejection from the northern active region released an m-class solar flare of long duration and the CME is coming.

Based on coronagraph images it appeared that at least one of the previous eruptions was heading our way.

NASA’s endless spiral shows an impact tonight basically when the USA is winding down their evening and that timing matches NOAA’s endless spiral except they show the M flare CME overtaking the previous one.

This is not that surprising because it was a long duration flare and those make the best CMEs.

This CME could be relevant when the one from the x-class solar flare really was less relevant. In addition to their being off different hemispheres of the sun which means their magnetism will be different, a long duration flare will outperform the CME production of an impulsive flare even of much greater magnitude.

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In green on the left the x class flare from the end of October, on the right the long duration flare in red.

If all other things are equal a flare rating can be a great way to judge which CME will be stronger than another.

NOAA is predicting only a g1 storm from this event kind of a not scary forecast given how fast they have forecast the CME to arrive.

If the CME indeed hits the storm could be a bit bigger.